Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
